2026 Is Waking Up Loud (And It’s Only January)

January in San Francisco real estate is supposed to be quiet.

Low inventory. Slim pickings. One — maybe two — homes that catch my eye in a given week.

Not this year.

We’re only in the second week of January, and I already have four homes I’m genuinely excited about. That’s not normal for this time of year — and it’s not a coincidence either.

Broker’s Tour this week was busy. Not just with agents grabbing coffee and chatting, but with actual inventory worth paying attention to. Thoughtful homes. Well-located. Properties that feel intentional — not “let’s test the market and see.”

Something has shifted.

Sellers Are Getting Real

For the last couple of years, many sellers were waiting.

Waiting for rates to drop back to 3%.
Waiting for the market to feel “like it used to.”
Waiting for certainty.

But here’s the truth most people are now accepting: those ultra-low rates aren’t coming back anytime soon.

And life doesn’t wait.

Which brings us to the 5 D’s of real estate:

• Death

• Divorce

• Diapers (kids + schools)

• Downsizing

• Diamonds

These moments don’t care about interest rate forecasts. They force movement — and I’m seeing more sellers finally say, “Okay. This is the market. Let’s go.”

If January Is the Clue, 2026 Will Be a Flex Year

Historically, January is slow because sellers hold back. They wait for spring. They wait for “better conditions.”

But if this level of inventory is showing up this early, it tells me we’re likely heading into a year where more homes hit the market than we’ve seen in a while — especially from long-term owners who are ready for their next chapter.

And here’s the key part buyers need to understand:

Buyer demand in San Francisco never really disappears.
It just gets quieter — then surges.

Well-appointed homes.
Homes priced with strategy (not ego).
Homes that align with how families actually live today.

Those will move. Quickly.

The Question Isn’t “Will There Be Homes” — It’s “Will You Be Ready?”

This is the part where buyers get caught flat-footed.

The right home hits.
The timing feels sudden.
And suddenly there’s scrambling — disclosures, financing, strategy — all under pressure.

The buyers who win in this market aren’t the most aggressive.
They’re the most prepared.

They’ve already:

• Clarified neighborhoods + non-negotiables

• Reviewed what “good value” actually looks like for them

• Lined up financing options

• Understood how to move confidently when something feels right

My Take

If January is any indication, 2026 is not a waiting year — it’s a positioning year.

Sellers are stepping forward.
Inventory is waking up.
And buyers who are ready will have real opportunities.

The window doesn’t stay open forever — but it does reward clarity and preparation.

Ready to Be Ahead of It?

If you’re even thinking about buying this year — whether that’s next month or next fall — now is the time to quietly get your ducks in a row.

👉 Connect here and I’ll help you:

• Get clear on what matters (and what doesn’t)

• Set up a curated Compass Collection

• Build a simple, pressure-free game plan so you’re ready when the right home hits

No chaos. No rushing. Just smart positioning — before the market fully heats up.

— Jen